Crimson Desert sales predicted to finish 2nd behind GTA 6, boosted by day-one Steam release

As anticipation builds ahead of the March 19th Crimson Desert release date, some followers are making lofty sales predictions. Paul Tassi of Forbes forecasts that the open-world game will rank only behind GTA 6 in 2026. The Pearl Abyss project should benefit from day-one cross-platform availability.

GTA 6 will be in a class of its own

Despite GTA 6 not arriving until November, most analysts believe it will dominate the competition. Venture capital firm Konvoy estimates that Rockstar Games could sell 25 million copies during its first 24 hours. Within two months, it may generate nearly $8 billion in revenue. Notably, it will launch on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S, with no confirmed PC date.

If the crime epic suffers another delay, all bets are off for the 2026 leader. Regardless, Paul Tassi anticipates that the Pearl Abyss title will top charts before the holiday season arrives. Crimson Desert pre-order sales are strong, with it third on Steam’s top sellers rankings. It’s the only pre-release game appearing in the top 40.

Crimson Desert previews are encouraging, though some performance concerns linger. Digital Foundry found that the PS5 Pro version didn’t disappoint, but its demanding visuals stress less powerful consoles. Many PC players are also unhappy about the sudden inclusion of Denuvo. Still, the anti-piracy measure hasn’t sent it plummeting down Valve’s most-wanted list.

Is Crimson Desert built for long-term success?

The industry will be watching to see if Pearl Abyss can first topple Capcom and Resident Evil Requiem. It took the survival horror game just 5 days to notch over 5 million in cross-platform sales. Yet, with Pywel's massive scope, its open-world challenger hopes to keep players engaged longer.

Tassi identified other candidates that could battle Crimson Desert sales for runner-up behind GTA 6. Shipping in September, Marvel’s Wolverine already has a large built-in audience supporting Insomniac Games. Even so, with Sony’s reported pullback from single-player PC ports, it will likely remain a PS5 exclusive.

Nintendo faces the same obstacles with its first-party Switch 2 games. After 4 days, Pokémon Pokopia surprised some observers by moving more than 2.2 million units. Regardless, limited by platform exclusivity, a new 3D Mario title may be needed to achieve more impressive numbers in 2026.