Slower PS5 and Switch 2 sales expected in 2026, as memory shortage could prompt price increases

Buyers are seeing some tempting PS5 sales this holiday season, joined by sporadic Switch 2 discounts. However, according to a TrendForce report, buyers are unlikely to encounter the same deals in 2026. Rising memory costs could also lead to a 4.4% decline in console shipments compared to the previous year.

Before memory makers began catering to burgeoning AI data centers, TrendForce had predicted a 3.5% decrease. Its latest report explains that console manufacturers often subsidize losses from hardware sales. However, memory accounts for 21-23% of the Switch 2 price and around 35% for PS5 and Xbox systems. Profits from software and subscriptions wouldn’t be enough to offset these economic challenges.

With Nintendo’s handheld, the company may already be struggling to maintain its current MSRP. So far, the Switch 2 has avoided the PS5 price increases seen with PlayStation inventory. Still, the original Switch and accessories have not been as lucky. Besides system memory concerns, higher NAND flash costs may make manufacturing cartridges more expensive.

An impressive Switch 2 sales run is in danger

TrendForce believes that even temporary discounts will become much rarer in 2026. Nintendo and Sony may have stockpiled memory, but it’s only a short-term solution. As a consequence of potential price hikes, lower demand could bottleneck Switch 2 and PS5 sales. The analysis also points to previous component shortages that led to declining console adoption.

In 2021, the semiconductor shortage wreaked havoc with both Nintendo and PlayStation hardware. Sony trimmed its estimated PS5 production from 16 million to 15 million units. The crisis also forced Nintendo to lower its 2022 sales targets ahead of lackluster holiday sales.

Consumers are seeing shockingly steep retail prices for DDR5 memory. With the AI industry monopolizing supplies, some experts believe the parts will remain more costly through 2028. A 4.4% fall in shipments may not seem significant, but 2027 could look more dire. Just before the PS6 and next Xbox console arrive, TrendForce warns the market may enter a “period of stagnation.”

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