It's Nintendo Switch 2 vs PlayStation 6: Analyst predicts sales numbers in surprising console battle

An analyst working for Toyo Securities has posted an interesting article about the Nintendo Switch 2 and PlayStation 6 in the Japan Edition of the well-known GamesIndustry.biz site. According to the writer, Hideki Yasuda, things are not looking rosy for a couple of major players in the console business at the moment due to their machines all being in “declining phases” of sales (see first chart below). The Nintendo Wii, Switch, and DS are included in the chart as are Sony’s PS4 and PS5. To take advantage of the PS4 and PS5 slowdown, and to keep the projected PS6 at bay, it is claimed Nintendo will swamp the market with the Switch 2 console.

It is opined that it will already be a risk for Nintendo to release the Switch 2 out of a major holiday period, with June being bandied around as a strong contender for the Nintendo Switch 2 release month. But with the PS5 Pro arguably not propping up overall PS5 sales as much as Sony had hoped for, and other consoles already in sales declines, it could actually be the ideal time or Nintendo to launch the Switch successor (OG Switch still available on Amazon). With the PlayStation 6 release date expected to fall in 2027 or 2028, there will be plenty of uncontested time for Nintendo to build an impressive sales tally for its next-generation console.

To do this, Nintendo will have to make sure it has sufficient stock to satisfy early and eventual ongoing demand for the Switch 2. As is well known, stock issues plagued the release of the PlayStation 5, and the Big N will not want to be forced into a similar situation. Yasuda claims that Nintendo’s inventory is looking very strong at the moment (see second chart below), and there is a very clear increase in stock numbers over the last few quarters. In fact, the analyst believes with sufficient inventory, sales of the Nintendo Switch 2 could reach six million units within the first quarter of its life and possibly even surpass that figure. This would likely see the hybrid console hit the 20 million+ unit sales that have previously been forecast for the first year.

It's strange to think that the real upcoming console battle for the Nintendo Switch 2 might be against the PlayStation 6, but Yasuda seems to believe that the PS6 is one of the reasons Nintendo needs to make sure the Switch 2 launch consists of sufficient stock. Obviously, there is some prestige to being the manufacturer of the world’s most popular console; however, as purse strings around the globe tighten, previous solutions of owning an Xbox and a Switch, or a PlayStation and a Switch, or a PC and a Switch, or any multiple gaming-machine combination, may become less of a likelihood. With this in mind, Nintendo would not object to the Switch 2 having enjoyed huge sales numbers by the time the PS6 shows up to further populate such a cutthroat market.