Switch 2 looks posed to smash launch day console sales record in Japan with massive pre-order supply

If Switch 2 pre-order lotteries are any indication, the handheld will break launch week console sales records in Japan. After surveys of lottery participants, it's possible to project supply and demand. According to a popular Japanese YouTube channel, the Switch 2 could launch in the nation with over 1.2 million units. That number would dwarf the marks set by prior Nintendo and Sony consoles.

To avoid chaos, Japan took a different approach to selling the system than other regions. In addition to the Nintendo Store, other retailers in the country also held lotteries to reserve consoles. After seeing 2.2 million entries in its contest, Nintendo admitted there weren't enough consoles to meet demand. Polls of lottery participants show more precisely how many fans lost out.

In the first round of the lottery, it's projected that gamers claimed 517,987 units. Losers had another chance in a second round, which handed out another 281,426 consoles. When factoring in the Switch 2 pre-order sales at other Japanese stores, the estimated launch day quantities for the handhelds are 1,227,670. Yet, that stockpile of consoles likely won't be enough to satisfy buyers.

While only estimates, it would take a colossal miss for the Switch 2 not to outsell past consoles. For comparison, the original Switch sold 330,000 systems during its first weekend of availability in Japan. Meanwhile, some reports show buyers purchased around 600,000 PS2s shortly after its debut.

If it sustains strong sales after the Switch 2 release date, the handheld could establish new console sales benchmarks globally. Nintendo surprised some analysts by predicting that 15 million consoles would be sold in its first fiscal year. The figure seems conservative based on the handheld exceeding pre-order estimates.