Insider claims Xbox Series X and S console sales are below 30 million, lower than other estimates

Recently, insiders have shared differing estimates for lifetime Xbox Series X and S console sales. Analyst Welfare revealed that Microsoft has sold around 37 million gaming systems worldwide. As sales of the consoles have slowed, some gamers doubt the figure. Most notably, the renowned leaker KeplerL2 suggests that a more accurate projection is under 30 million consoles.

KeplerL2’s assertion relies on an AMD fiscal report for Q4 2024, which included over 100 million current-gen console sales. The company tracks how many of its chips are sold for use in the PS5, Xbox Series X|S, and even the Steam Deck. Earlier in 2025, Sony confirmed that it had sold slightly over 75 million PS5 systems before the end of 2024. Subtracting 75 million from the 100 million, and an estimated 4 million Steam Deck sales, leaves 21 million transactions for Xbox consoles.

Much of the confusion stems from conflicting reports distributed by manufacturers and game publishers. In February 2025, Take-Two Interactive reported that at least 94 million current-gen consoles had been sold by the close of November 2024. The PS5 accounted for 65.6 million of those sales through September. Considering additional sales by the end of November, Microsoft may have moved as many as 27 million Xbox Series X|S systems.

KeplerL2 concludes that the most optimistic calculation for Xbox console sales is below Welfare’s 37 million projection. Yet, the truth may lie somewhere between the two numbers. VGChartz uses various retail sources to produce its rankings. Its most recent update had tracked more than 32 million Xbox Series X|S sales.

Followers watch KeplerL2 because of leaks about consoles in development, including PS6 specs. As a result, some of his critics think that sales analysis is outside his comfort zone. Still, it’s clear that PlayStation’s advantage over the struggling Xbox consoles will only grow in the coming months.