Analyst no longer predicts massive Xbox Game Pass growth, citing PS5 games as hurting the service
In April 2024, Michael Pachter caused a stir when predicting the future of Xbox Game Pass. The gaming research analyst expected the service to accumulate 200 million subscribers by 2034. Just over a year later, Pachter has shared a much more grim forecast on his podcast. After the widespread loss of Microsoft jobs, he identifies several missteps by the company that limit the appeal of Game Pass.
Pachter's original projection was more optimistic than Microsoft's own evaluation. The leak resulted from court proceedings surrounding the 2023 Activision Blizzard acquisition. Microsoft anticipated over 100 million Xbox Game Pass subscribers before 2030. That rate of expansion already would have made it difficult to reach Pachter's goal four years later.
The last official update from the company in 2024 confirmed over 34 million subscribers. Since then, there have been subtle signs of even slower growth. In April 2025, Microsoft Gaming CEO Phil Spencer acknowledged that the pay-per-month model wasn't a fit for all fans of Xbox games.
During his podcast, Pachter argues that Microsoft still operates as if it has a thriving console to support. According to the analyst, the Xbox Series X|S was critical to attracting Game Pass subscribers. The company now has a multi-platform approach that includes releasing former exclusives as PS5 games. As a result, there is less motivation to purchase an Xbox console. With PlayStation Plus as an option, players have more reasons to consider other services.
Even with some Xbox games topping PS5 sales charts, Pachter doesn't believe it's a winning strategy. He contends that Microsoft could have earned more revenue from Game Pass by keeping titles exclusive to its consoles.
Price increases have also made the subscription service seem like less of a good value. The Pachter Factor broadcaster did suggest ways for Xbox to market Game Pass to a wider audience. One proposal targets mobile gamers by adding titles like Diablo Immortal and Candy Crush.
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