End of an era: Apple expected to dethrone Samsung and become global smartphone leader
Analysts at Counterpoint Research are making bold predictions in their latest forecast. They claim that the balance of power in the smartphone business will be completely overturned by 2025. Samsung needs to brace itself, as Apple is not only set to overtake the South Koreans for a short time, but to stay at the top. Statisticians are predicting global market growth of 3.3% for next year.
While the market as a whole is also growing moderately, Apple is expected to see a substantial 10% increase in sales. Samsung, for its part, is forecast to reap a modest 4.6% increase. This simply won't be enough to hold the title of world leader. If the analysts prove correct in their calculations, Apple will once again be the world's largest smartphone manufacturer for the first time since 2011. Its market share would then climb to 19.4%. And things may become even more bleak for Samsung, as the report predicts Apple will remain unchallenged at the top until at least 2029. In sum, this would not only be changing of the guard, but a new era.
Why is this happening right now? The reasons are quite straightforward. The iPhone 17 series is currently selling like hotcakes, not only in its key home market of the USA, but also in China. Market researchers are seeing double-digit year-over-year growth rates there, which is remarkable considering China has recently been a tough market for Western companies. Added to this is the "super cycle" wherein many people bought new smartphones during the coronavirus lockdown. Those phones are now old, the batteries are dead, the displays are scratched. It's time to buy a new one.
Then there is the huge second-hand market. Between 2023 and mid-2025, 358 million used iPhones changed hands. Those who use such a device often buy a new model next. Furthermore, the foldable iPhone is finally expected in 2026, which will comes as a direct challenge to Samsung on its own turf. In parallel, an iPhone 17e, a more affordable model (a "Slim" or SE replacement), is intended to attract new customers. Bloomberg also reports that a complete design upgrade is planned for 2027. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers are struggling. Their domestic market is weak and supply chains are strained. Components are also expected to become more expensive starting in 2026. Apple and Samsung, with their deep pockets, have a significant advantage when it comes to purchasing components.
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