Apple iPhone 16 sales expected to slow because of excessive similarities with current iPhone 15 models

Ming-Chi Kuo, a typically well-informed analyst, reports that Apple has reduced internal production targets for iPhones going forward. While still outstripping its competitors with targets remaining at 200 million units, this estimate represents a 15% decline from last year. Additionally, although a modest change by all accounts, the reduction in absolute volume would represent the greatest drop in sales of all major smartphone manufacturers across 2024.

According to Kuo, Apple forecasts sales in 1H 2024 sales to be about 10% of those recorded during 1H 2023. Supposedly, the alleged 15% change will occur in 2H 2024, in part because of Huawei's return to competitiveness within China. Moreover, Apple has yet to match its peers with a foldable iPhone or one that utilises generative AI, which will exacerbate a gap between 2023 and 2024 forecasts. Described as a 'new paradigm' by Kuo, Apple may bring a form of generative AI to market later this year with iOS 18, codenamed 'Crystal'.

On top of the above, the entry-level iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus are not slated to receive any major design changes, contrary to their iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus (curr. $929.99 on Amazon) counterparts. Potentially, the pair could gain additional hardware buttons, among other minor changes. By contrast, Samsung is said to have revised its sales forecasts upwards by as much as 10%. Reportedly, the company believes that there will be greater than expected demand for 'AI smartphones', a category under which it has promoted the Galaxy S24, Galaxy S24 Plus and Galaxy S24 Ultra.