TrendForce says iPhone 18 Pro's bill of materials cost rises almost 40% as memory prices surge

TrendForce estimates that the bill of materials (BOM) cost for the 256 GB iPhone 18 Pro will rise by around 38% compared to the iPhone 17 Pro, driven almost entirely by memory pricing. The research firm's analysis shows memory's share of total BOM cost climbing from about 10% a year ago to roughly 34% in Q3 2026, with a further rise past 40% projected for the first half of 2027. Memory has now overtaken the application processor and display as the single largest cost component, a reversal from prior generations.

TrendForce expects Apple to absorb part of this increase by cutting into its gross margin rather than passing the full cost onto buyers, following the pricing approach it used for recent MacBook launches. The firm also suggests Apple could raise prices on older iPhone models still in its lineup to help offset the higher memory costs across the portfolio.

The report frames Apple as relatively insulated compared to Android vendors. TrendForce argues that brands with thinner margins, particularly in the entry-level and mid-range segments, have far less room to absorb the same cost pressure. With memory prices up five to sevenfold since early 2025, some vendors may need to raise prices sharply or drop product lines that have become unprofitable. TrendForce expects global smartphone production to stay under pressure from the second half of 2026 through 2027 as a result.

Note that these are TrendForce's supply chain cost estimates and projections, not confirmed pricing from Apple. Final retail prices and specs for the iPhone 18 Pro may differ once Apple makes an official announcement, expected around September 2026.