PS6 performance gains may have been overhyped

The next generation of consoles are not too far with end of 2027 being the expected timeline. Sony will release the PS6 and a PS6 handheld, and majority of leaks have suggested a huge performance leap, especially in terms of ray tracing compared to the current generation. However, an insider has now shared more humbling numbers that show performance gains may have been overhyped or misinterpreted, theoretically.

The information comes from KeplerL2 on the NeoGaf forum where they replied to a comment saying “MLID is misinterpreting AMD docs wrt performance.” Of course, the insider is referring to Moore’s Law is Dead, one of the most prolific leakers in the next PlayStation and Xbox console space. Back when MLID starting sharing leaks about the next generation hardware, he claimed that the PS6 will be capable of 10x ray tracing performance compared to the PS5.

KeplerL2 explained that the performance gains will be more like 3x depending on the amount of ray tracing a game has. Referring to MLID, KeplerL2 said, “He thinks if a slide says "Orion 10x RT perf vs Oberon" it means you can look at PS5 running a game at 30 FPS, multiply that by 10x and compare with 5090 doing let's say 200 FPS and conclude PS6 > 5090.”

Then, further explaining thier stance, the insider shared what is supposedly Ubisoft’s performance data for Assassin’s Creed Shadows, showing frame times for different aspects of ray tracing. Extrapolating from AMD’s internal estimates of performance jump, KeplerL2 concluded that the real-world performance gain is only 3.10x rather than 10x. They added that this will be the case in games with not a lot of ray tracing. In games with heavier ray tracing or path tracing, the gap will be higher.

To be fair, MLID never claimed a 10x FPS increase. Commenting on @Zuby_Tech’s post about KeplerL2's NeoGaf post, MLID said he has only reported the numbers that AMD directly states so there’s no misinterpreting. Furthermore, the PS5 Pro is advertised to be 2x to 3x faster than the PS5 in ray tracing performance, so the PS6 would be at least 4x faster, but that could be depending on the game, as KeplerL2 claims.