Tripled DRAM costs expected to lead to lower smartphone production

The DRAM crisis is not only pushing up the prices of RAM, SSDs and hard drives, but also the prices of DRAM and NAND for laptop and smartphone manufacturers, inevitably leading to more expensive devices in many cases. According to the latest report from TrendForce, the cost of a typical smartphone configuration with 8 GB of RAM and 256 GB of flash storage has already increased by 200% compared to the first quarter of 2025.

While accounting for only 10 to 15% of the production costs of an average smartphone last year, RAM and flash storage are now expected to account for 30 to 40% of the total costs. Further price increases are expected in the course of 2026, as the DRAM crisis is set to worsen due to growing demand from AI giants. For many manufacturers, increasing the prices of smartphones for end consumers will be inevitable. This is particularly true for cheaper mid-range smartphones, which have smaller profit margins than flagship models.

TrendForce analysts predict that global smartphone production will plummet by 10% to 1.135 billion units in 2026. Depending on RAM/storage price developments, a decline of over 15% is also possible. Smartphone manufacturers in China are expected to be particularly affected, as Apple, with the comparatively high price of the iPhone 17, has more leeway in absorbing the increased production costs. Furthermore, Samsung manufactures its own RAM and storage and is therefore expected to weather the crisis better.