There is worse to come: TeamGroup predicts memory shortage will peak in 2027

The global memory shortage may get even worse over the coming months before it improves. TeamGroup says the tightest period could come between late 2026 and early 2027, as AI demand locks up supply from the world’s biggest DRAM and NAND makers.

During its earnings conference on November 2, TeamGroup CEO Chen Ching-wen warned that the market has yet to reach the most difficult stage of the ongoing memory crisis. He expects the tightest period to come between the fourth quarter of 2026 and the second quarter of 2027.

Major manufacturers including Samsung, SK hynix and Micron have reportedly sold out their 2027 supply through long-term agreements. That leaves little room for third-party buyers, and TeamGroup believes memory could become unavailable at almost any price.

The growing influence of AI infrastructure is continuing to change the memory market. Business customers, especially those building AI servers, now account for 64.6 % of TeamGroup’s memory sales, up from 24.6 % in Q3 2025. Consumer sales have fallen from 75.4 % to 35.4 % over the same period.

Despite efforts to expand production, there still isn't enough memory to meet demand. Chinese suppliers CXMT and YMTC now account for close to 10 % of the memory market, but TeamGroup says that is still not enough to meet demand. It expects the market to remain unbalanced until the second half of 2028, or possibly later.

Memory prices have risen sharply. The contract price for a 16 Gb DDR5 chip was $8.70 in October 2025, but reached about $48 by September 2026. Spot prices, which are not locked into long-term contracts, carry an additional premium of 30–50 %.