DRAM prices set for sharp 13 percent decline in Q1 2025 as PC memory leads market downturn

TrendForce’s newest analysis points to a widespread drop in DRAM prices for the first quarter of 2025, with standard DRAM products expected to dip anywhere from 8 percent to 13 percent. Once HBM products are added into the equation, the market’s overall decline looks a bit milder at 0-5 percent.

PC DRAM is taking the hardest hit, with projections indicating an 8-13 percent decrease. This slump is driven by aggressive inventory cutting that began in late 2024, weaker demand in end markets, a boost in DDR4 output from Chinese manufacturers, and a glut of cheap chips floating around the spot market.

Server DRAM prices will likely slide by 5-10 percent, partly due to low seasonal demand. Adding to the pressure, manufacturers have shifted a bunch of DDR4 production over to DDR5, and some HBM capacity has made the same switch, further ramping up supply.

On the mobile side, smartphone makers are still playing it safe with their purchasing plans, even though inventory levels have mostly settled down. Contract prices for LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X are anticipated to fall around 8-13 percent and 3-8 percent, respectively.

Meanwhile, graphics DRAM is expected to drop by 5-10 percent, mainly because demand remains pretty lukewarm. Even some stockpiling of GDDR7 for upcoming GPUs can’t keep prices steady. Consumer DRAM is also seeing hefty price cuts, with DDR3 forecast to slip 3-8 percent and DDR4 poised for a bigger 10-15 percent plunge.