Tesla ramps cheaper Cybertruck 4680 cell production by 51% indicating possible Model Y structural battery revival

Earlier this month, Tesla insiders claimed that Musk had served the 4680 cell development team an ultimatum: Fix 4680 production by the end of the year or the project is cancelled. Now, it seems like that threat may have been unnecessary and perhaps premature, according to the numbers provided in Tesla's recent Q2 2024 earnings call. 

Tesla says that is increased 4680 cell production by as much as 51% over the Q1 period, adding that as it scaled 4680 production, it continues to see more cost improvements. By its own measure, Tesla is on-track to start dry cathode production in Q4 2024, which should further reduce the cost of cell production. Tesla went on to comment that it had already made the first validation Cybertruck with dry cathode 4680 cells on production manufacturing equipment, suggesting that it has all but solved one of the major hurdles to low-cost 4680 production. 

It remains to be seen how Tesla's 4680 production ramps further, but reaching these measurable goals is a good indication for the future of the project. The main implications of a successful 4680 production ramp are a significant price reduction for any EVs designed around the 4680 structural battery, along with potential energy density and range improvements for those EVs. 

While the Tesla Model Y used to rely on the 4680 structural battery pack, the first-gen 4680 was scrapped in favour of perfecting the newer 4680 cells that would end up in the Cybertruck. Currently, the Cybertruck is the only Tesla EV using 4680 cells, but speculation says that sufficient 4680 production capacity could mean a return of the Model Y with a structural battery pack based on the 4680 cell. 

Read about Tesla's struggles getting the Cybertruck to market in Walter Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk ($18.69 on Amazon).