Tesla may deliver twice as many Cybertrucks at US$60,000 price than forecast when production ramps

Tesla will be able to make Cybertrucks much faster than anticipated by current Wall Street estimates, claims Gary Black, which would send the earnings per share higher than what's currently baked in. The analyst assumes a US$60,000 Cybertruck starting price and adds that his supply chain channel checks indicate investors are underestimating Tesla's production capacity potential by up to 200,000 vehicles.

Currently, Wall Street estimates stay at 94,000 Cybertruck deliveries next year, and 160,000 in 2025. Gary Black, however, says that according to disclosed "communications between [management] and suppliers TSLA is planning on 375K annual production once ramped." They cite that the prediction is also "based on 1.8M reported CT preorders."

While the latest Cybertruck preorder tally stays at 1.8+ million indeed, most of those are unlikely to be realized as one only needs to plunk down $100 to reserve Tesla's debut electric pickup, plus the Cybertruck price will certainly be way above Elon Musk's initial $40,000 starting tag mention. Most analysts expect $60,000-$70,000 Cybertruck pricing, so it remains to be seen how many of those who reserved two or three just in case will actually fulfil their order.

As for the production ramp, the analyst forecasts 375,000 units per year at one point, which is a huge number given the novel design and build materials, as well the sheer amount of 4680 batteries that will be needed. Tesla is working on drastically increasing its 4680 battery production with a 100 GWh expansion at Giga Nevada, but also new facilities in its Austin and Fremont plants.

Its newest Gigafactory in Mexico is also expected to supply Cybertruck parts and perhaps even batteries. It remains to be seen if Tesla will be able to beat Wall Street analysts' production estimates once again, and hopefully its upcoming quarterly press conference will shed more light on the Cybertruck's specs and pricing.

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