Apple misjudged interest in 2022 MacBook Pros with M2 Pro and M2 Max chips as it cuts orders by 30%
Apple has reportedly misjudged the potential interest in its new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro 2022 models so badly, that it has sent notes to suppliers that equal order cuts of up to 30%. Such a drastic reduction of shipment orders before the 2022 MacBook Pro release is so rare, that reputed Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is of the opinion that demand forecasts must have taken a nosedive because of a looming recession and the end of the work-from-home arrangements of the last few years.
In a note to clients titled "Apple cuts shipment forecasts for new 14" & 16" MacBook Pro by 20 - 30% before mass production, and it's a structural risk to the high-end ABF & Mini-LED sectors," Mr. Kuo continues saying that "the only major upgrade for the new 14" and 16" MacBook Pros is the new processor, and limited new selling points may also be the reason for the lower-than-expected demand."
This is not the first time we are hearing that there will be two MacBook Pro models released in 2022 with only M2 Pro and M2 Max processor upgrades as the 2021 MacBook Pro models already scored a major redesign. The decline in MacBook shipments, however, comes as a surprise. Mr. Kuo warns that not only the 2022 MacBook Pro models will be getting a production cut, but MacBook orders as a whole will suffer, too:
4Q22 overall MacBook shipment forecast is revised down by 15-20% due to new MacBook Pro orders, and MacBook shipments will decline by 10-15% YoY in 2022 (vs. market consensus is a 5-10% YoY decline). The shipping time of MacBook Pro standard models/custom models on Apple's official website has been significantly reduced from "4-6 weeks/6-8 weeks" 2-3 months ago to "in stock/1 week" now internal”, mainly due to a significant decline in demand.
In the end, the analyst concludes, it will be the makers of ABF motherboards for the new M2 Pro and M2 Max processors, as well as the Mini-LED display manufacturers. The 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro 2022 are reportedly set for announcement in October, but their release dates are so far up in the air.
Ming-Chi Kuo (Medium)