100% hit rate so far: EA simulation predicts the next World Cup winner

The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off today, June 11, with the opening match between Mexico and South Africa at 12 p.m. PDT. According to Electronic Arts, however, the winner may already be known. Since 2010, the developers behind EA Sports FC – formerly FIFA – have released detailed tournament simulations ahead of every World Cup based on their in-game player data.

The prediction is based on the extensive EA Sports FC database (PS5 version currently around $42 on Amazon), which records and regularly updates the attributes of professional soccer players worldwide. Pace, stamina, passing, finishing, tactical awareness and many other individual values are taken into account. The game uses this data to calculate the strength of each team and simulate the possible course of the tournament.

Spain is expected to win the 2026 World Cup

As EA recently announced on X, Spain is expected to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the prediction proves correct, the Spanish national team would claim its second World Cup title after its 2010 triumph. The prediction is attracting particular attention because of EA’s previous track record. Its simulations correctly predicted the winners of the men’s World Cups in 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 – a perfect record so far.

However, the simulations are not infallible. Ahead of UEFA Euro 2024, EA predicted England as the winner, but Spain ultimately lifted the trophy. The model also missed the mark at the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, where the United States was projected as the favorite. In reality, the U.S. team was eliminated early, while Spain went on to win the tournament.