Tesla Superchargers worth $100 billion as Tesla slides to 18% market share in 2026

Despite the increase in EV competition, Tesla will still have the biggest piece of the market pie in 2026, reports the Bank of America financial analyst John Murphy. His previous prediction that Ford or GM will surpass Tesla in 2025 didn't hold water as Tesla cut its prices drastically and, apparently, way more than the analyst expected.

Tesla is now expected to slide towards the 18% market share mark in 2026, beating both GM and Ford which would have about 14% each, claims Mr. Murphy, followed by Stellantis with 8%. Granted, that would be a breathtaking drop from the 62% market share that Bank of America said Tesla commanded last year, but then the pie itself will be much larger, too. According to the analyst, "Elon cut prices much more than we thought he would."

"The model that will be everyday man’s EV doesn’t come out until 2026. Before that lower-priced vehicle comes out, if he wants to grow he has to keep taking price points down," he added. Recent rumors tip that the mass market Tesla Model 2 may arrive as soon as next year, though, so the Bank of America analyst may have to redo his forecast once again if that happens.

Given some recent developments, Tesla can also count on its Supercharger network to be a cash cow going forward, according to another analyst, Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas. After open-sourcing its charging system and calling it the North American Charging Standard (NACS), Tesla witnessed a jaw-dropping pace of industry adoption. Ford and GM both declared that they will be using NACS as a charging system for their future electric vehicles, and were joined by Rivian as well as potentially by Hyundai, not to mention a number of other charging companies and even states like Texas.

This is why Morgan Stanley's analyst ran the numbers and deduced that Tesla's Superchargers could be worth up to US$100 billion. Even in the most "plausible" of the scenarios, the Supercharger network would add $42 billion to Tesla's bottom line, while if higher industry adoption rates hit 80% penetration in the "dominant" scenario, Tesla's Superchargers could be worth the cool US$100 billion. 

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