Tesla Robotaxi range will only be 200 miles despite record 5.5 mi/kWh efficiency

Tesla may only be putting $4,000 worth of 4680 battery cells in the Robotaxi at the most, in order to arrive at the sub-$30,000 price before tax credits that Elon Musk promised during the unveiling event.

According to Tesla engineers and designers at the event, the Robotaxi will have a fairly short range on a charge of about 200 miles. It will, however, be the most efficient EV on the road, covering 5.5 miles per kWh of battery capacity.

This beats the current Lucid Air Pure EV efficiency champ in the US, indeed, as it is rated for 5 mi/kWh. The Lucid car is a big, comfortable sedan that one can buy right now, though, while the Robotaxi is a smallish two-seater that is still vaporware when it comes to market availability.

The 200-mile Robotaxi range and 5.5 mi/kWh efficiency rating mean that its battery size will be around 40 kWh or less, the smallest pack that Tesla has ever placed in one of its vehicles.

The bill of materials (BOM) for the first Model Y 4680 battery cells from Tesla's pre-production pilot line came out to about $107/kWh, based on a teardown and analysis of its chemical composition. Nominally, this would mean that the Robotaxi's 40 kWh battery pack would cost Tesla about four grand, give or take a few hundred.

Tesla, however, is planning to produce four different types of 4680 batteries with the cheaper dry-cathode method it developed for the Cybertruck. One of those will be destined for the Robotaxi and will bring a further 20% reduction of the 4680 battery production costs.

In addition, Tesla's 4680 batteries may then qualify for the federal government's made-in-US battery tax credit of $45/kWh, so the Robotaxi battery pack may cost it way less than $4,000 in the end.

The projected BOM for the mass market Tesla Model 2 that would be built on the same platform as the Robotaxi is about $20,000. That is for a vehicle with a larger battery pack and a 250-mile range, as well as more seats, pedals, and a steering wheel, so the manufacturing cost of the Robotaxi should be much lower than that.

Thus, even at a sub-$30,000 price, Tesla is likely to be profitable on the Robotaxi, if and when it begins mass production, especially if it qualifies for the full $7,500 federal tax credit discount, too.

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