Gartner predicts the end of affordable PC segment by 2028 due to rising memory costs

Analyst firm Gartner forecasts that the sub-$500 PC market could die by 2028, and the surging memory prices would be the reason why. The firm predicts that the DRAM and SSD prices will rise sharply by 2026. To be specific, the memory's share in the total bill of materials (BOM) could rise from 16% to about 23%.

Compared to 2025 levels, the overall PC prices could see a 17% increase. As for the entry-level market, the margins are already razor-thin. So, per Gartner, the cost pressure could render sub-$500 laptops nonviable. This shift would make vendors prioritize profitability over the volume of shipments, even if that leads to a reduction in unit sales.

Gartner's forecast further suggests that rising prices will extend the lifecycle of devices. This is something that's being talked about for the console industry as well. The analyst firm notes that the business PCs could see a 15% increase in lifespan, while consumer systems could stretch by up to 20% by the end of 2026.

These longer replacement cycles would mean that the software side would need to keep up with active aging hardware. The broader adoption of so-called AI PCs could also see a delay. More specifically, Gartner predicts that the projected 50% market penetration for AI-capable systems could be pushed back to 2028.

Now, while the firm's outlook points to structural pressure, there are some factors that could soften the pressure on the budget laptop and PC segment. Regional pricing strategies, refurbished market, and promotional offers are among them (1TB WD_Black SN850X SSD curr. $233 on Amazon). Even so, it's highly likely that the sub-$500 Windows laptop and PC category will face challenges in the coming years if memory prices remain elevated as projected.