Analyst prediction for the most popular iPhone 12 model is counter to recent trends

Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst with TF International Securities Group, predicts that the 6.1-inch iPhone 12 will be the most popular model. In a report — which we haven’t been able to get a copy of — Kuo predicts that the 12 Mini (~US$649/699), 12 Pro (~US$999), and 12 Pro Max (~US$1099) will have around 20% share each, leaving 40% for the regular 12 (~US$749/799).

It is interesting to delve into why Kuo might consider the regular iPhone 12 as the contender for best sales in this series. This goes against the trend in recent years, where Apple’s most popular new device in a number series is often the cheapest one. The iPhone XR outsold the rest (review) of the iPhone XS series, and the iPhone 11 was the phone of choice in the 11 series.

The two dominant reasons will likely be consumer’s perception of value and the iPhone SE 2020. As much as small-phone aficionados pine for good compact phones that compete with flagships, they are in the minority. This minority status applies to both points.

Many consumers will walk into a store, see two similarly priced slabs of glass, and quickly decide it is worth paying a little extra for the bigger one. Some will come to that conclusion because they’ve realised their phone is their primary computing device and the extra screen size helps. However, many non-techy people we talk with still associate with the idea that the bigger phone is the better device.

While we get semi-regular small phone releases in the Android world (e.g. Sony Xperia XZ2 Compact, Samsung Galaxy S10e, Google Pixel 4a), those in the iOS camp had their last proper small phone release in 2017 with the iPhone 8. This made the iPhone SE 2020 stand out as an impressive small phone, and while there were purchasers that chose it primarily for its size, low price was the primary factor for recommending it.

The iPhone SE 2020 will sit alongside the 12 series creating a situation where those who want a small modern-design iPhone will choose the 12 Mini, while the value-orientated purchasers will pick the SE 2020. The older iPhone SE did not have this effect during the XS series or 11 series releases because it was already several years old by that point.