AI could automate most white-collar jobs within 18 months, say top tech CEOs, but researchers aren't so sure

Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman recently said in a Financial Times YouTube interview that AI could automate most white-collar jobs in the next 12 to 18 months. He specifically cited roles like lawyers, accountants, project managers, and marketing professionals. Suleyman also said that future AI models will reach "human-level performance" on professional tasks.

Other CEOs in the industry share a similar view, with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei claiming that AI will eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within five years, and Ford CEO Jim Farley echoing concerns that white-collar workers will be "left behind." These statements are further supported by the fact that most, if not all, software engineers already use AI-assisted coding for the vast majority of their code development, with Microsoft even claiming that AI is responsible for 20 to 30 percent of the company's code.

Job market impact is already being felt across the industry, with Meta announcing a five percent workforce reduction of approximately 3,600 employees in 2025, Microsoft cutting 15,000 employees in 2024, and Amazon planning to cut up to 30,000 roles. CEOs have explicitly cited AI as a reason for reduced workforce needs.

Khan Academy CEO Salman Khan warns that impacts will come "faster and hit harder" than anticipated, and that even a 10 percent shrinkage in white-collar work "will feel like a depression." Khan also said that the layoffs could cause an identity crisis for affluent workers who have built their careers around these roles. He also stressed the need for pathways to retrain displaced workers for new roles, citing laid-off truck drivers transitioning into radiology technicians as an example.

There is, however, scepticism surrounding all these claims. An MIT study found that a whopping 95 percent of enterprise generative AI use had no measurable impact on profits or losses, with PwC reporting that over half of CEOs see no tangible benefits from AI tool deployment. Some researchers even suggest that layoffs blamed on AI actually stem from poor business performance and exaggerated AI capabilities. Despite these concerns, Suleyman still envisions a future of "billions of digital minds" that are customizable for every person and organization, tailored to their individual needs.