Study warns of historic labor market shift: 50% of all jobs could disappear
Is AI a job killer or a driver of progress? That question is currently at the heart of a heated debate. A recent opinion poll conducted by the Bonn Business Academy (BWA) in collaboration with the Diplomatic Council (DC) has reached some alarming conclusions: by 2040, half of all existing jobs in Germany could be replaced by artificial intelligence and robotics. The findings will be presented at the 8th Ordinary Trade Union Congress of the IGBCE, taking place from October 19 to 24 in Hanover.
Led by Harald Müller, Managing Director of the BWA and Co-Chair of the Real-World AI Forum at the Diplomatic Council, the study surveyed 150 executives from large and medium-sized companies, as well as trade union representatives. Its goal was to examine the opportunities, risks and timelines associated with the technological transformation driven by AI and humanoid robots.
According to the survey, 69% believe that artificial intelligence will be as commonplace in offices by 2027 as Microsoft Office is today. In manufacturing, 35% expect AI to be widely adopted by 2030, while 55% don’t anticipate that happening until after 2040. Predictions are even more cautious when it comes to humanoid robots: only 18% think they will be in widespread use by 2030, while 40% expect that milestone closer to 2040. Nearly half – 46% – consider widespread adoption before 2050 to be unrealistic.
One in two jobs at risk
A majority of respondents – 77% – fear that up to half of all jobs could disappear by 2040 due to automation, with routine roles in production, logistics and administration seen as most vulnerable. However, 45% also acknowledge potential benefits, such as reducing physically demanding or repetitive tasks. At the same time, 64% of employers expect AI and robotics to increase productivity and lower costs.
On the other hand, some studies suggest that AI will have only a limited impact on the job market. After all, AI and robotics are likely to create new roles and professions that could eventually offset the loss of traditional jobs. The real question, however, is whether this transition will happen quickly enough to soften the expected disruptions.
