Model Y Juniper expected to last 20 years as Tesla vehicles now beat diesel car lifespan in new EV longevity study

With "the closing longevity gap between battery electric and internal combustion vehicles" phrase in the title, a new car lifespan study from the UK shows that worries about how long can an EV last seem largely overblown.

The study found that the teething problems of electric cars that resulted in more frequent maintenance and shorter lifespans are largely gone in modern EVs. They now offer lifespans comparable to gas-powered cars, even if one uses them more extensively.

This turned out to be especially true in the case of Tesla, which has cars that have clocked more than 400,000 miles on the odometer already. "Tesla’s EVs are expected to cover an average of 204,000 miles over their lifetime, surpassing all other brands regardless of powertrain," tip the researchers.

As for the median expected lifetime of Tesla cars, the calculations returned 20.3 years, beating both the petrol and diesel vehicle medians. Among diesel cars, VW's Skodas are expected to last the longest at 17.4 years, but covering a shorter distance than Teslas. When it comes to gas-powered vehicles, Audis could last 20.9 years, or slightly longer than Teslas, yet with much less intensive usage than both EVs and diesels of about 143,100 miles.

The researchers caution that the electric vehicles industry is still in its nascence, though, and battery replacement costs have to come down to make a good use of their technological longevity:

To fully realize the benefits of a longer BEV lifespan, replacement batteries, if necessary, must be affordable relative to the residual value of BEVs without their original batteries. The establishment of a robust circular economy for batteries is imperative to effectively support the dynamics of this technological advancement. As of 2020, the cost to replace battery ranged from US$4,000 for a 30 kWh Nissan battery to US$10,275 for a 75 kWh Tesla Model 3, compared with US$1,100 to US$3,400 for an ICEV transmission replacement. If battery and replacement costs do not fall quickly enough, owners may choose to prematurely write off their BEVs, which could skew the comparison of BEV longevity against ICE vehicles. This could lead to an overestimation of BEV longevity in our analysis, which TCO and LCA modellers should consider.

Taking that advice into account, electric vehicle and battery makers alike are now advocating for a big jump in EV warranties to make their second-hand market a viable proposition. NIO and CATL, for instance, are working towards a 15-year battery warranty becoming standard, up from the current eight years on average.

The cell chemistries are already mature enough so that CATL can offer such pack warranties for swap stations or commercial batteries, and if the 15-year EV warranty becomes a reality, this vehicle longevity study that pegs new Teslas like the upcoming Model Y Juniper as good for 20 years of service, could only be a harbinger of things to come.

Get the 80A Tesla Gen 2 Wall Connector with 24' cable on Amazon