15-year electric car battery warranty 'feasible' as Biden's 8-year coverage starts to expire with $140 billion in replacements on tap

There is increasing evidence that modern EV batteries can last way more than the typical 8-year powertrain warranty that automakers now give, and which President Biden's emission standards legislation wants to mandate.

According to Tesla's co-founder JB Straubel, the life cycle of the typical electric car battery pack is now closer to 15 years than to the official warranty. Straubel claims that even after that lifespan, the battery will be as precious as catalytic converters.

His Redwood Materials venture is now one of the biggest battery recycling companies, able to recover "more than 95% of materials like nickel, cobalt, copper, aluminum, lithium and graphite in a lithium-ion battery," too.

15-year electric car warranty: a boon for the used EV market

Still, potential new or used EV buyers are looking at the official warranty numbers and hesitate. There will be more than 20 million electric vehicles coming out of warranty in the next few years, and that buyer hesitation may be a problem.

That is why NIO just signed a 5-year partnership with CATL, the world's largest EV battery maker, over the development and distribution of long-life electric car batteries. The goal is to rally automakers around the promotion of battery longevity.

This would include giving a 15-year EV warranty, at the end of which the battery will have at least 85% retained capacity. China already has the 8-year battery warranty mandate that the US government is now trying to implement, but the push now is to double that.

Where China's constellation of EV makers goes, others like Tesla could follow. After all, Tesla's lead vehicle engineer Lars Moravy said in an interview with Jay Leno that its used cars only lose a few percentage points of battery capacity over a decade, and Jay confirmed citing his Model S.

According to one study, Teslas and most other electric vehicles only lose about 20 miles of range on average in the span of the typical 8-year, 100,000-mile warranty. In addition, battery health issues are in the low single digits.

NIO's CEO also argues that the battery chemistries which can make a 15-year warranty possible are already out there. "It's technically feasible, it's just that we have to set that target, we have to define that thing," he assures, adding that "China contributes 60 percent of global NEV sales, so we are facing this problem first" and have to act fast.

The examples given include high prices for replacing even a hybrid car's battery pack, let alone that of an electric vehicle, which could decimate the market for used EVs.

85% battery capacity retention

CATL and NIO will also strive to raise the EV battery retained capacity warranty to 85% from the current 70% at which threshold there may be safety and usability issues. The CATL battery packs that NIO uses in its swap stations already have a 12-year warranty under the 85% retention rule.

CATL will now be working on extending the battery longevity warranty to 15 years, basically the lifespan of an electric vehicle. At stake, according to NIO, are the nearly $140 billion that users will need to replace the battery of each out-of-warranty hybrid or electric vehicle by 2032.

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