Ex-Samsung exec says Chinese DRAM could end shortage

Khe-Hyun Kyung, current Samsung senior advisor and former head of its Samsung Device Solutions (DS) division, projects that boosts Chinese DRAM production capacity should see RAM prices drop in a year from now, starting in roughly H2 2027 or the beginning of 2028. He made this argument at the 285th NAEK Forum, which is hosted by the National Academy of Engineering in Korea, and pointed out that since Korea holds nearly 70% of the DRAM market, manufacturers need to prepare.

Kyung's proposed solution is that Korea pivot toward fabless system semiconductors and sovereign AI, noting that "It is difficult for Korea to compete simultaneously with the U.S. and China in both hardware and software" and that Korea must "seriously consider how to deploy AI."

So, there's certainly good news for consumers there. While it's unclear whether or not Chinese-manufactured RAM will be allowed Stateside anytime soon, China being able to produce its own would still free up a large amount of global supply for customers elsewhere in the world. Kyung estimates that Chinese production capacity could go as high as six million wafers per month in H2 2027, but also warns that production investments could drop if firms see ROI on AI capital investments drop.

In any case, it's still tantalizing to see a potential end to the current DRAM shortage strangling the worldwide PC market. Increased output from China can only be a good thing for the market at large when the current supply choke feeds just three companies: SK Hynix and Samsung in Korea, and Micron in the United States.

Earlier estimates of an end to the DRAM supply crisis start around 2030 or 2035, so prices dropping by 2028 thanks to China building large domestic supply would be a massive win for consumers and businesses alike. While the most major Big Tech and AI companies are doing just fine in these conditions, a multitude of smaller-scale businesses in consumer electronics are suffering and shutting down. These conditions bode poorly for consumers at large in the long-term, and if the shortage truly extends into the 2030s, the damage may be irreversible.