A recent report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) estimates that annual sales of electric vehicles (EVs) could reach 60 million units by 2030 to align with the 1.5°C scenario—more than four times the current sales of 14 million vehicles in 2023. This rapid acceleration in EV adoption will necessitate a significant increase in the production of critical minerals required for batteries.
According to the report Critical Materials: Batteries for Electric Vehicles, annual EV battery demand is projected to rise from 850 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2023 to over 4,300 GWh by 2030—a fivefold increase. While the report indicates that known reserves of critical minerals are sufficient to meet this demand and even create potential surpluses, it emphasizes the need for proactive policies to mitigate the risk of supply deficits.
For lithium, Irena forecasts a potential surplus of 25% of demand by 2030. However, supply chain constraints could also result in a deficit of up to 40%, highlighting the need for effective supply chain management. Cobalt poses greater challenges due to heavy reliance on nickel-cobalt chemistries in batteries. The report notes that developing current supply pipelines and advancing technologies that reduce dependency on cobalt could help avert shortages. Similarly, nickel shortages could be mitigated by accelerating the transition to LFP (lithium iron phosphate) and LMFP (lithium manganese iron phosphate) battery chemistries, which are less reliant on nickel.
The study underscores the importance of continued innovation to optimize the use of critical minerals.
“With the sustainable expansion of material supply chains, complemented by continued innovation in battery chemistries, countries can meet the growing demand for EV battery materials. This is possible even under a very fast adoption of EVs, in line with a 1.5°C decarbonisation pathway,” the report concludes.
Source(s)
International Renewable Energy Agency, Irena (In English)