DRAM crisis: Analysts expect drastic price drop in 2028

Since last October, the DRAM crisis has caused drastic price increases for RAM, SSDs, and even hard drives. For example, a Crucial Pro 2 x 16 GB DDR5-6,000 kit now costs $549, up from $89 charged for the same kit last October. A Samsung 990 Pro 2 TB SSD, at $389, costs nearly three times as much as it did a year ago.

The reason for this is the extremely high demand for DRAM and NAND from AI giants like OpenAI, which are increasingly expanding their server capacities. Analysts disagree on how long the DRAM crisis will last, as it depends on the expansion of production capacity on the one hand, and on the evolution of demand from AI companies on the other. According to the latest estimate from Bernstein analysts, an improvement could be in sight by 2028, but only after prices have risen further next year.

The price per Gb of DRAM is expected to rise by 43.2 percent to $2.23 in 2027, but then fall by 52.9 percent to $1.05 in 2028. As expected, prices in 2028 will still be twice as high as they were before the DRAM crisis, but at least one-third lower than they are today. A similar trend is expected for SSDs. While 1 GB of NAND flash memory costs an average of $0.30 today, the price is expected to rise only slightly to $0.32 next year, and eventually fall by a remarkable 68.8 percent to $0.10 in 2028, meaning prices are expected to remain 25 percent higher than before the crisis.