COP 2023: Emissions from fossil fuels are millions of times greater than efforts to capture CO₂

Global carbon emissions from sources like coal, oil, and natural gas have increased since 2022 and may hit a record high at the end of the year. Despite being hailed as remedies for climate change, certain technologies have been found to be ineffective.

The Global Carbon Budget Report forecasts a total of 36.8 billion tons of global emissions by the close of 2023. This year is the hottest year ever, said UN Secretary-General Guterres during his speech to delegates at COP28 in Dubai.

The yearly global climate summit COP28 gathered about 200 countries to discuss environmental challenges. During the event, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged for a phase out of fossil fuels due to the alarming situation. Additionally, the USA pledged to donate $3 billion for new climate projects, and France expressed support for using nuclear energy as a way to lower emissions.

There has been great progress in reducing emissions in some countries—however, it just isn’t good enough. We’re drastically off course.

- Mike O’Sullivan, a lecturer at the University of Exeter and one of the authors of the report

"Emission Phase-Out" and "Fossil Fuel Phase-Out"

The UN has recognized capturing carbon as a crucial action in combating climate change. During the climate conference, expressions like "emissions phase-out" and "fossil fuel phase-out" were commonly used in this regard. Some nations at the meeting, like the UAE, support emission phase-out, indicating that pollutants may persist to be released if these discharges can be caught and stored, for example, underground, employing novel technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS).

At the current rate, this approach will only capture 1-2% of emissions by 2030. However, we need to cut global emissions by around 50% to meet the 1.5-degree climate goal. Direct air capture captured only 10,000 tons of CO₂ this year, which is a small amount compared to the 36.8 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. Fossil fuel phase-out, on the other hand, means getting rid of all fossil fuels.

Experts call for a drastic reduction in fossil fuels

The report's researchers estimate that we still need to emit around 275 billion tons of carbon dioxide before global warming exceeds 1.5 °C. At the current rate, it would take approximately seven years to reach this amount.

We cannot offset our way out of this problem. The only way to solve this crisis is with major changes to the fossil-fuel industry. Technologies like carbon removal only become important if emissions are drastically cut as well. We have agency, and nothing is inevitable. The world will change and is changing—we just need to speed up.

- Mike O'Sullivan