Elon Musk pegs test driver boredom as a challenge before unsupervised Model Y FSD release

Tesla may soon be filing for the necessary regulatory permits to release its Full Self-Driving feature as an unsupervised option, i.e. without the driver intervention warnings and restrictions.

According to Elon Musk, Tesla expects to get regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD some time next year, turning the Model 3 and Model Y into a robotaxi of sorts, along with the Cybertruck and its other vehicles.

The reason that the dedicated Robotaxi which Tesla just announced won't be driving around all on its own first is simply because it will start mass production in 2026 at the earliest. Moreover, it will be harder for regulators to greenlight its use as an autonomous vehicle without steering wheel or pedals.

Actually, Elon Musk pegs test driver boredom as one of the obstacles before getting regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD. In order to obtain a permit, Tesla has to unequivocally demonstrate to regulators as many miles driven without intervention or accidents as possible.

The system is getting so good, he just reiterated, that it is becoming a challenge to amass those statistics, so Tesla will need more vehicles with FSD on the road, and is currently offering the APR financing deals to match that goal.

You start getting to thousands of miles between interventions, you need 10,000 miles to get an intervention. The average person only drives about 10,000 miles in a year. If it's in an urban environment, the average speed is 20 mph. Our professional test drivers get pretty bored, frankly. They're like, okay, I drove all week and there was no intervention. The highlight of the week would be like, yes, an intervention, finally! It's getting to that point.

In any case, unsupervised FSD will be geofenced only for Texas and California, admitted Elon. This indicates that regulators might only be giving permission for preset areas and routes, similar to how Waymo's self-driving vehicles operate.

He did add that Tesla will be ready to bring unsupervised FSD to each US region it gets permission for, as well as abroad. Europe and China are only expected to approve the current FSD (Supervised) next year, though, let alone the unsupervised version. 

Given that FSD is currently certified as a Level 2 driver-assist system, jumping to Level 4 or 5 next year seems like a big reach, unless Tesla agrees to apply a lot of the regulatory restrictions other autonomous mass market transit efforts already have to comply with. In short, if unsupervised FSD happens in 2025 indeed, it is likely to be with a rather limited scope.

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