EV battery prices are falling as true solid-state cell costs are projected to match batteries with 5% liquid electrolyte

Tesla and other electric car makers may soon benefit from a further drop in EV battery costs, as the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is in free fall again, reaching its lowest for the year.

There is such a level of oversupply in China, both for battery materials and ready cells, that EV manufacturing costs are expected to start dropping again.

This tendency has helped Tesla reduce the prices of its popular Model Y and Model 3 vehicles drastically since last year when the lithium carbonate price cuts started, and has initiated an EV price war in China, too.

Tesla's biggest competitor BYD, for instance, just introduced a new Dolphin model which offers more range on a charge through a larger battery, yet kept its already low $13,700 price absolutely the same. The new Dolphin comes less than six months after the previous refresh in February, and may be a reflection of falling battery prices.

"Battery costs have fallen in line with declining raw material prices," tips research firm TrendForce, "leading to a sustained decrease in EV battery cell prices." "Monthly ASP for square ternary, square LFP, and pouch ternary EV battery cells were CNY 0.49/Wh, 0.42/Wh, 0.51/Wh, respectively," it continues.

That is great news for those expecting cheaper electric cars, but also for the market viability of solid-state batteries going forward. These come with high 500Wh/kg energy density and are much more compact, safe, and fast charging than current EV batteries.

Their prohibitive cost is a major hurdle before mass production, but one solid-state battery maker is now of the opinion that the costs will drop very fast. In fact, according to Sunwoda's research, in 2026 true solid-state batteries will reach the cost point of current EV packs with 95% solid and 5% liquid electrolyte.

The NIO ET7 covered 650 miles on a charge with such 150 kWh semi solid-state battery, and NIO is currently mass-producing those packs and renting them out for longer summer trips at $7-$21 per day.

At the current cost of CNY 2/Wh, though, the semi-solid cells are still 4x more expensive than LFP ones, so when true solid-state batteries hit their price points they, too, will likely only be reserved for premium electric vehicles.

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