Bitcoin loses ground in its fight against the US$50,000 mark, but one bullish price prediction model supposedly remains intact
After a few strong days around Christmas, which saw the world's most valuable cryptocurrency spending most of its time above the psychologically important US$50,000 mark, many notable crypto tokens have once again lost value. With a drop of around 7% in the past 24 hours, one bitcoin is now priced at approximately US$47,600, which is roughly 30% below its all-time high recorded on November 10.
However, a well-known crypto analyst who has gained 1.7 million followers on Twitter due to his intriguing crypto forecasts, remains quite bullish regarding the future of Bitcoin. His stock-to-flow prediction model revolves around the scarcity of Bitcoin and the certainty that there will never be more than 21 million tokens in existence, which will supposedly lead to increasing prices in the long term. Despite its significant drop in December, Bitcoin's current price is still in the predetermined deviation band, which is why the analyst believes that his prediction model remains valid and intact.
Originally, it was predicted that one bitcoin would be worth US$100,000 by the end of the year. Although this most likely won't be the case, the aforementioned model still sees the popular cryptocurrency rising to around US$1 million per token over the course of 2025. As mathematically sound as this price prediction may be, the crypto market remains notoriously volatile and often unpredictable, which is why such forecasts should always be treated with the appropriate amount of caution. The creator himself admitted that a so-called black swan event, such as further crypto bans or a war with China, could lead to the failure of his Bitcoin price prediction model.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not contain any kind of investment advice.
$50K-$200K 1 standard deviation band feels wide. Some people think this makes S2F model invalid and not useful, but is it?— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) December 28, 2021
Last cycle S2F model average was $7K with a 1sd band of $3.5K-$14K. Not wide from current $50K perspective.
Next cycle band will be $0.5M-$2M .. useful IMO pic.twitter.com/5ODHHdHSfE