Tesla wants gas vehicle ban in 2030 as cheaper electric cars with longer range speed up EV transition

In comments to the new EPA vehicle emission standards proposal, Tesla asks the government to up its goal of having 67% of new cars sold in the US be electric by 2032. It not only thinks that new data shows how this share can be as large as 69%, but also claims that the EPA should strengthen its emissions proposal to put an end to gas-powered cars as soon as 2030.

To make its case, Tesla has supplied the government with its confidential sales projections that show the EPA has severely underestimated its production and growth potential. For instance, the EPA model has it selling 100,000 vehicles per year in the US, while just for 2022 Tesla notched five times that amount.

Just the upcoming mass market Model 2, on the other hand, may have a production volume in North America pegged at 2 million cars annually, coming from Tesla's newest Gigafactory in Mexico. With the Model 2 expected to be released in 2025, Tesla's internal projections show that no less than 28% of vehicle sales in the US will be zero-emission as soon as 2026.

On the other hand, argues Tesla, the production cost modeling of the EPA is "far too high and not supported by the record, in that they do not fully consider the documented and projected rapid decline in battery cell and pack costs, as well the significant BEV (battery electric vehicles) range increases achieved through other efficiencies." In other words, Tesla predicts a rapid decline in the price of electric cars sold in America in the next few years, and a range parity with gas-powered vehicles that would speed up their adoption much faster than the EPA expects.

Needless to say, gas vehicle behemoths like GM, Toyota, VW, Hyundai, and others, are of the opposite mind, and want the EPA to loosen, not toughen its upcoming new vehicle emissions standard. They argue that the EV transition will take more time. Bundled in an Alliance for Automotive Innovation (AAI), they filed comments which ask the EPA to dilute its stringent emissions goal in order to allow for no more than 50% of vehicles be either electric, plug-in hybrids, or fuel cell by 2030.

That's the year when Tesla wants gas-powered vehicles to cease sales and advises the EPA that it can achieve this by nixing the system of pay-to-pollute credits reserved for ICE cars in order to ease the transition towards zero-emission vehicles. It remains to be seen if or when the EPA will take Tesla or AAI's comments into consideration, but the key takeaway seems to be that Tesla cars may become drastically cheaper in the next few years, according to Tesla itself.

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