Tablet shipments to top Notebooks by 2016

According to BGR.com, the PC world is going to be overrun by tablets eventually. At least, that is what NPD's latest DisplaySearch figures are projecting. As can be seen from these figures, tablet shipments are likely to top 350 million units by 2016, surpassing notebooks for the very first time.

NPD's figures clearly indicate that over the next five years, tablets shipments will have a compound annual growth rate of 28% as the total number of shipped units is expected to increase from 121 million in 2012 to 416 million units in 2017. On the other hand, notebook shipments are expected to grow from 208 million units to 393 million during the same period.

Combining the projections of both tablets and PCs we get an overall growth from 347 million units in 2012 to 809 million in 2017.

As per BGR.com, a key factor behind the growth is the adoption of tablets in mature markets including North America, Japan and Western Europe, which is has been predicted to account for 66% of shipments in 2012 and this is expected to remain so in the future. Tablet PC shipments into mature markets alone is expected to grow from 80 million in 2012 to 254 million units by 2017.

Richard Shim, senior analyst at NPD DisplaySearch, remarks:

"Consumer preference for mobile computing devices is shifting from notebook to tablet PCs, particularly in mature markets. While the lines between tablet and notebook PCs are blurring, we expect mature markets to be the primary regions for tablet PC adoption. New entrants are tending to launch their initial products in mature markets. Services and infrastructure needed to create compelling new usage models are often better established in mature markets."

Tablets are likely to evolve further in designs and performance, turning them into formidable alternatives to notebooks. While evolving, tablets are expected to incorporate multi-core processors, extremely stable operating systems and vastly growing app libraries along with higher resolution displays. To counter the tablets, notebooks are also expected to undergo evolution, and during the process they are expected to offer thinner form factors along with higher resolution displays and increased touch functionalities.

Currently it seems that the notebook PC market will hold 60% of portable PC shipments throughout 2012, while the figure is expected to go down to 49% by 2017.

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