Glassnode analysts: Bitcoin needs to clear $86,000 as weak spot demand threatens its rally

Long-term holders have accumulated around 1.07 million BTC in the 'resistance zone', with much of the buying concentrated near $85,000. The amount of Bitcoin held by these investors at those price levels has changed little over the past month.

A move back toward their acquisition prices could therefore create additional selling pressure as some holders regain the opportunity to exit without a loss. The same area also corresponds closely with the estimated breakeven level for US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which Glassnode places near $86,000.

The ETF position has improved considerably from earlier this year. Unrealized losses across US spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen from roughly $18 billion in February to about $3.9 billion. However, the sector has yet to completely recover its paper losses.

That does not automatically mean long-term holders or ETF investors will sell once Bitcoin reaches the zone. Glassnode data shows that long-term investors have become less aggressive in realizing profits. Their share of total realized profits has dropped from 88% at the August peak to 47%.

There is also a potential source of buying pressure above the current price. Glassnode estimates that forced short liquidations are concentrated between $82,000 and $86,000, with the potential liquidation volume increasing 21% since August 19. If Bitcoin moves into that area, short sellers could be forced to repurchase BTC, potentially adding momentum to the move.

The bigger issue is whether the spot market can provide enough demand to support such a breakout. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost says sustained buying pressure has not yet appeared in the spot market. The 90-day moving average of cumulative volume delta remains neutral, even as futures activity shows stronger participation.

Stablecoin liquidity also points to a market that is still rebuilding. Binance's stablecoin reserves previously exceeded $50 billion before falling by almost $7 billion. Reserves have since recovered by around $1.6 billion over the past month, but the 90-day change remains negative at 1.6%.

Bitcoin's US spot ETFs have also recorded recent outflows. Investors withdrew $46.6 million on September 8 and another $120.2 million on September 9, producing combined outflows of $166.8 million across the two sessions.

The technical picture is less negative. Darkfost notes that Bitcoin's daily RSI has reached 67, while its seven-day and 21-day exponential moving averages have moved above the 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2025.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $76,882.80, down 3.35% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. BTC had moved between a 24-hour low of $76,670.90 and a high of $79,655.08, leaving it below the $80,000 level that analysts are watching for signs of stronger market liquidity.

Disclaimer: The information reported here should not be used as a basis for any personal investment decision. Notebookcheck does not offer cryptocurrency, NFT, or other trading, investment, or financial advice.