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Analysts believe Android, Windows 8 to catch up to iPad by 2014

Non-iOS tablet manufacturers predicted to ship 83 million units by 2014, beating out Apple’s iPad by 5 million units

With the growing number of Android tablets in the market and the upcoming Windows 8 platform, the Google and Microsoft operating systems should eventually out-ship Apple’s iOS, right?

At least one global investment and securities firm seems to think so. A recent report from Nomura Securities International, Inc. (NSI) is predicting that non-iPad tablets will have the upper hand in final shipment numbers by 2014.

As reported by Electronista, Nomura estimates 35 million iPads versus 20 million non-iPads during the 2012 to 2013 period. By 2014, the gap would finally close and even surpass iPad numbers with 83 million units against Apple’s 78 million.

“While the market remains skeptical on non-iPad tablet shipments given Apple’s cost competitiveness, we expect structural changes within the industry to take place as soon as 2012,” said Nomura. The company expects the tablet market to be worth as much as $74 billion by 2014.

So, what is the driving force behind Nomura’s predictions? “In 2013, we think Microsoft will likely be the game changer with its new Windows 8 OS,” the company claimed. Indeed, the next iteration of Windows will be Microsoft’s first tablet-optimized operating system with multitouch support for increased usability. Additionally, the fact that Windows 8 will support ARM-based cores could mean Microsoft will get its chance to have a greater presence in the tablet market.

Still, Google and Microsoft both have high uphill battles against Apple’s iOS devices. The popularity of the iPad is undeniable and a recent study saw 89% of global tablet web traffic is attributed to the iPad. Non-iOS manufacturers will surely have their work cut out for them in the next few years.


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Allen Ngo, 2011-07-16 (Update: 2012-05-26)