This asteroid could hit the Moon in 2032 and send debris toward Earth

Many people remember asteroid 2024 YR4, estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters wide, which made headlines at the beginning of 2025. And with good reason, because following several observations, it posed a certain threat to Earth with a probability of 3.1%, although this subsequently diminished.

Indeed, observations made by the James Webb Space Telescope made it possible to redefine its initial trajectory and thus spare Earth. However, it is still making headlines, as asteroid 2024 YR4 could collide with our Moon with a probability of up to 4.3%.

Recently, researchers at the University of Western Ontario in Canada highlighted the risk to Earth if this asteroid were to crash into our natural satellite. In a study published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters, they estimate that this impact could release as much energy as a nuclear explosion, in the order of 6.5 million tons of TNT.

And that's not all, because simulations carried out by these scientists show that 100 million kilograms of material would be ejected from the Moon's surface. However, if the asteroid were to strike the Moon on its visible side, there is a 10% chance that this debris would be directed toward Earth due to its gravitational pull. 

However, if this scenario plays out, there will be no need to fear for our lives. Our atmosphere is thick enough to protect us from space debris ranging from a few millimeters to several centimeters in size. What's more, this could result in a meteor shower unlike anything we have ever seen before. 

But, there is a real risk for satellites orbiting the Earth at various altitudes. It must be said that a single small piece of rock, propelled thousands of kilometers, is capable of causing considerable damage to these devices. It will therefore be necessary to closely monitor the evolution of its trajectory, and scientists will have to take appropriate measures to deal with this danger.