Federal Autopilot recall investigation might delay Tesla Robotaxi and CyberCab approvals as NHTSA says accidents keep happening

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced that its investigation into accidents with potential Tesla Autopilot involvement has determined it was active during 13 fatal crashes.

It is hence extending it to include the 23V838 Autopilot recall that Tesla issued in December, to determine "the prominence and scope of Autopilot controls to address misuse, mode confusion, or usage in environments the system is not designed for."

The news comes just as Tesla is gearing up to announce its "purpose-built" Robotaxi and, potentially, a new CyberCab service details on August 8.

To make them a viable proposition, Tesla would have to amass more miles driven with its driver-assist features, both to improve its AI algorithms for self-driving, and present their safety record compared to a human driver to regulators.

It has been taking many steps in that direction already, mandating driver-assist system education with purchase, offering free trials and transfers, and dropping both the FSD purchase and subscription prices.

The new NHTSA investigation into Autopilot's safety and recall adequacy, however, may lead to more driver warnings and limitations of the driver-assist systems, just when Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla is "all in" on vehicle autonomy during the quarterly conference call with investors.

"The work conducted in these investigations aligns with Tesla’s conclusion in its 23V838 recall filing," says the NHTSA, and adds that it "identified at least 13 crashes involving one or more fatalities and many more involving serious injuries in which foreseeable driver misuse of the system played an apparent role."

In other words, the federal transportation safety agency argues that Tesla could have and should have foreseen "misuse" of its driver-assist features.

ODI completed an extensive body of work via PE21020 and EA22002, which showed evidence that Tesla’s weak driver engagement system was not appropriate for Autopilot’s permissive operating capabilities. This mismatch resulted in a critical safety gap between drivers’ expectations of the L2 system’s operating capabilities and the system’s true capabilities. This gap led to foreseeable misuse and avoidable crashes.

That is why it is now investigating its recall for adequacy, as accidents keep happening:

Tesla filed Recall 23V838 to address concerns regarding the Autopilot system investigated in EA22002. Following deployment of the remedy in Recall 23V838, ODI identified concerns due to post-remedy crash events and results from preliminary NHTSA tests of remedied vehicles. Also, Tesla has stated that a portion of the remedy both requires the owner to opt in and allows a driver to readily reverse it. Tesla has also deployed non-remedy updates to address issues that appear related to ODI’s concerns under EA22002. This investigation will consider why these updates were not a part of the recall or otherwise determined to remedy a defect that poses an unreasonable safety risk.

It remains to be seen if the new investigation would affect Tesla's vehicle autonomy bet with the Robotaxi and the CyberCab service, potentially delaying their regulatory approvals.

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